Oil steadies as market awaits OPEC+ output hike

Crude futures barely budged on Tuesday, pausing after their recent slide while traders braced for an expected 411,000‑barrel‑per‑day increase in OPEC+ production that could be rubber‑stamped at the alliance’s meeting later this week.

Market sentiment cooled after the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise 680,000‑barrel build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending 27 June, snapping a five‑week stretch of draws that had drained more than 22 million barrels from storage.

By mid‑afternoon in London Brent was changing hands near $67.13 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $65.47—both only marginally above their Asian opens.

“Prices are caught between the prospect of extra OPEC+ barrels, mixed U.S. stock data, lingering geopolitical uncertainty, and unclear macro‑policy signals,” said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva. With the Israel‑Iran cease‑fire stripping out the war premium, she noted, a softer U.S. dollar remains one of the few forces nudging prices higher.

ING strategists expect the producers’ group to keep accelerating its supply return, fully restoring the 2.2 million bpd cut in 2022 by the end of the third quarter—well ahead of the original end‑2026 timeline. 

“Larger monthly increases should leave the market comfortably supplied for the rest of the year and push it back into a sizable surplus in Q4,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote, adding that OPEC’s ample spare capacity is reassuring traders.

Tanker‑tracker Kpler, meanwhile, estimated Saudi Arabian exports climbed by roughly 450,000 bpd in June versus May, reinforcing expectations of a growing supply cushion.