Trump global aid cuts risk 14mn deaths by 2030

A steep reduction in United States funding for overseas humanitarian programmes could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under the age of five, according to research published on Monday in The Lancet medical journal.

The study analysed health and aid data from 133 low‑ and middle‑income countries between 2001 and 2021. It attributes 91 million lives saved during that period to projects financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Modelling by the authors indicates that an 83% slash in USAID’s budget—the figure announced by Washington earlier this year—would “abruptly halt, and even reverse, two decades of progress,” said co‑author Davide Rasella of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.

“For many low‑income nations, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” Rasella warned.

White House policy shift

President Donald Trump ordered the spending cuts in March, framing them as part of a broad effort to trim the federal workforce. The initiative is being overseen by technology entrepreneur Elon Musk, who is leading a White House cost‑cutting task force.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the time that more than 80 per cent of USAID programmes had already been cancelled. Roughly 1,000 remaining projects, he added, will be “administered more effectively” by the State Department in consultation with Congress.

Mounting humanitarian concerns

The United States is by far the world’s largest single humanitarian donor, operating in more than 60 countries. Aid workers say the pull‑back is already being felt on the ground. Last month a UN official told the BBC that food rations in Kenya’s Kakuma refugee camp had fallen to their lowest levels ever, leaving “hundreds of thousands slowly starving.”

At Kakuma’s main hospital the BBC documented cases of acute child malnutrition, including an infant with loose, wrinkled skin—signs doctors attributed to the ration cuts.

Global response

The findings were released as dozens of heads of state gather in Seville for the biggest United Nations‑led aid summit in a decade. Delegates are expected to press the U.S. delegation for clarity on future funding levels.

Rasella said the projected death toll underscores the urgency of that discussion. “We are looking at a preventable humanitarian catastrophe,” he said.