India's Russian oil imports set for six-month high

India is on course to import the most Russian crude in six months this December, even after new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil exporters came into effect on 21 November.

Data from Kpler, cited by Reuters’ Clyde Russell, shows India’s estimated December intake averaging 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly higher than November’s 1.83 million bpd and the highest level since June, when imports reached 2.1 million bpd. November’s final figure was also revised down from an earlier estimate of 1.855 million bpd, but still well above October’s 1.48 million bpd.

The latest U.S. sanctions hit Rosneft and Lukoil, which together previously handled about half of Russia’s oil exports—roughly 2 million bpd—before the restrictions began. Since then, both exporters and buyers have adapted, shifting flows to non-sanctioned Russian companies.

Goldman Sachs data indicates that since the sanctions took effect, exports from Rosneft and Lukoil have fallen by around 1 million bpd. Over the same period, shipments from non-sanctioned firms have increased by roughly 500,000 bpd.

Some analysts had predicted a steep drop in India’s purchases in December, but current import levels suggest that Russian crude continues to reach Indian refiners through alternative suppliers, effectively bypassing the sanctions’ impact.