Asian coal imports decline as rising prices curb demand

Asian buyers are scaling back on thermal coal imports as prices rebound from their mid-year lows, reversing months of soft demand.

According to Reuters’ Clyde Russell, October coal arrivals in China, India, Japan, and South Korea are expected to fall from September levels, reflecting reduced appetite amid higher prices. Since June — when thermal coal prices hit a four-year low — Australian coal has risen 16%, while Indonesian grades are up about 12%.

The recent price recovery was fueled by a surge in Chinese imports during the summer. After a sluggish first half marked by weak industrial activity, a property downturn, and strong domestic output, China’s industrial demand has strengthened, boosting energy consumption in the second half of 2025.

Research firm DBX Commodities estimates China’s October imports at 28.17 million tons, slightly below September’s 28.43 million and down from 33.53 million tons a year earlier.

India’s thermal coal imports are projected at 13.35 million tons this month, a marginal decline from 13.76 million tons in September and 13.82 million tons in October 2024.

Japan is expected to see a sharper drop, with October imports of 9.52 million tons compared with 10.44 million in September and 9.94 million a year ago.

South Korea’s imports are also set to decline to 6.45 million tons from 8.19 million in September. However, year-on-year, the country’s coal intake remains higher than the 5.92 million tons recorded last October.

Overall, the combination of higher prices and moderating demand signals a near-term cooling in Asia’s thermal coal imports following a summer rebound.