China's Russian crude imports dip on customs data, but shipping points higher

China’s crude oil purchases from Russia slipped in August compared with a year earlier, marking the first annual decline in months, according to Chinese customs data cited by the South China Morning Post. Yet shipping trackers paint a different picture, suggesting flows remain resilient.

Customs figures show Russian imports were down about 15% year-on-year, as Chinese refiners increased buying from suppliers such as Brazil and Indonesia, slightly reducing Russia’s market share. Analysts said refiners are diversifying feedstock to reflect changing prices and seasonal demand.

By contrast, S&P Global Commodities at Sea reported that seaborne shipments of Russian crude to China actually rose about 12% month-on-month in August.

Overall, China’s crude imports climbed nearly 5% from July to 49.5 million tonnes, according to Anadolu Agency. Year-on-year growth was just 0.8%, underlining that while China remains the world’s largest oil importer, domestic demand for refined products is slowing.

The divergence in data highlights shifting buying patterns. Imports looked weaker against last August, when refiners were taking full advantage of steep Russian discounts amid tightening sanctions. On a monthly basis, however, purchases rose as refiners stocked up ahead of autumn maintenance and narrower price arbitrage with alternative suppliers.

For Moscow, the year-on-year drop is significant given China and India have been the main outlets for Russian crude since 2022 sanctions reshaped global trade flows. Whether August proves a temporary dip or an early sign of demand rebalancing will depend on how aggressively Chinese refiners chase discounted cargoes into the autumn.